Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people

Reference solution file: growth from 30 to 100 people over 1,000 sols

1. Starting point at 30 residents

The initial architecture is treated as an existing system with its limits and its maintenance debt. Growth therefore starts with an audit of residual capacity, not with an automatic multiplication by 100/30. The first pass consists of mapping the interfaces: which resource comes in, which goes out, which command acts, which data confirm the state and which other subsystem depends on the result. The mapping in “Starting point at 30 residents” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For starting point at 30 residents, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Starting point at 30 residents,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Starting point at 30 residents,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Starting point at 30 residents,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Starting point at 30 residents” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. A single telemetry reading is not sufficient evidence when a common bias is possible. For “Starting point at 30 residents,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Starting point at 30 residents” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real.

For “Starting point at 30 residents,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Starting point at 30 residents,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Starting point at 30 residents” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy.

For “Starting point at 30 residents,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Starting point at 30 residents,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization.

2. Population trajectory

Arrivals are grouped into waves. Each wave must be preceded by a capacity milestone on habitat, energy, water, food, care and human time. A free bed in a dormitory does not prove that the settlement can absorb one more resident. For “Population trajectory,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Population trajectory” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For population trajectory, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Population trajectory,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Population trajectory,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Population trajectory,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Population trajectory” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Population trajectory,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Population trajectory,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Population trajectory” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real.

For “Population trajectory,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Population trajectory,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Population trajectory” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy.

For “Population trajectory,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Population trajectory,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Population trajectory” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization.

3. Energy at the 100 scale

The grid becomes multi-source and multi-use. Industrial peaks, vital loads and storage are managed by priority. The file measures the reserve after the loss of the largest credible source. For “Energy at the 100 scale,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Energy at the 100 scale” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For energy at the 100 scale, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Energy at the 100 scale,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Energy at the 100 scale,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Energy at the 100 scale,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Energy at the 100 scale” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Energy at the 100 scale,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Energy at the 100 scale,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Energy at the 100 scale” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real.

For “Energy at the 100 scale,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Energy at the 100 scale,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Energy at the 100 scale” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy.

For “Energy at the 100 scale,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Energy at the 100 scale,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Energy at the 100 scale” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization.

4. Heat as a limit to growth

More energy used means more heat to reject. Radiators, loops and heat exchangers become infrastructure in their own right. An extension may be delayed because thermal capacity is insufficient even if electricity production seems abundant. For “Heat as a limit to growth,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Heat as a limit to growth” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For heat as a limit to growth, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Heat as a limit to growth,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Heat as a limit to growth,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Heat as a limit to growth,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Heat as a limit to growth” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Heat as a limit to growth,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Heat as a limit to growth,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Heat as a limit to growth” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real.

For “Heat as a limit to growth,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Heat as a limit to growth,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Heat as a limit to growth” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy.

For “Heat as a limit to growth,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Heat as a limit to growth,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Heat as a limit to growth” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization.

5. Urban water and sanitation

The loops are no longer just those of a habitat but of a small network. Zones, storage, treatment lines and isolation capacities are separated. A local contamination must not doom the whole reserve. For “Urban water and sanitation,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Urban water and sanitation” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For urban water and sanitation, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Urban water and sanitation,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Urban water and sanitation,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Urban water and sanitation,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Urban water and sanitation” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Urban water and sanitation,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Urban water and sanitation,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Urban water and sanitation” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “5 — Urban water and sanitation”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Urban water and sanitation,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Urban water and sanitation,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Urban water and sanitation” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “5 — Urban water and sanitation”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Urban water and sanitation,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Urban water and sanitation,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Urban water and sanitation” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “5 — Urban water and sanitation”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

6. Food and stocks

Local production reduces some imports but adds energy, water, nutrients, labor and biological risk. The plan tracks calories, diversity, losses, safety stocks and cooking and storage capacity. For “Food and stocks,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Food and stocks” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For food and stocks, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Food and stocks,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Food and stocks,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Food and stocks,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Food and stocks” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Food and stocks,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Food and stocks,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Food and stocks” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “6 — Food and stocks”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Food and stocks,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Food and stocks,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Food and stocks” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “6 — Food and stocks”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Food and stocks,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Food and stocks,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Food and stocks” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “6 — Food and stocks”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

7. Habitat, urban planning and refuge

Zoning separates living, industry, hazardous storage, science, mobility and refuges. Distances start to cost time and energy. The growth plan reserves corridors and interfaces before the ground is saturated. For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Habitat, urban planning and refuge” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For habitat, urban planning and refuge, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Habitat, urban planning and refuge” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Habitat, urban planning and refuge” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “7 — Habitat, urban planning and refuge”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Habitat, urban planning and refuge” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “7 — Habitat, urban planning and refuge”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Habitat, urban planning and refuge,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Habitat, urban planning and refuge” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “7 — Habitat, urban planning and refuge”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

8. Industry and qualification

At 100 residents, the question is no longer just making things but guaranteeing repeatability, metrology, material, procedure and traceability. An unqualified local part may be useful for a piece of furniture and unacceptable for a vital function. For “Industry and qualification,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Industry and qualification” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For industry and qualification, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Industry and qualification,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Industry and qualification,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Industry and qualification,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Industry and qualification” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Industry and qualification,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Industry and qualification,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Industry and qualification” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “8 — Industry and qualification”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Industry and qualification,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Industry and qualification,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Industry and qualification” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “8 — Industry and qualification”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Industry and qualification,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Industry and qualification,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Industry and qualification” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “8 — Industry and qualification”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

9. Health and specialization

The number of roles increases, but the settlement remains vulnerable where skills are rare. The file defines skill redundancy, cross-training, diagnostic capacity and on-call load without assuming a complete terrestrial hospital. For “Health and specialization,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Health and specialization” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For health and specialization, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Health and specialization,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Health and specialization,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Health and specialization,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Health and specialization” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Health and specialization,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Health and specialization,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Health and specialization” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “9 — Health and specialization”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Health and specialization,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Health and specialization,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Health and specialization” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “9 — Health and specialization”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Health and specialization,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Health and specialization,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Health and specialization” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “9 — Health and specialization”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

10. Governance and institutions

Growth creates resource conflicts, more rules and the need to delegate. Emergency, appeal, logging and review processes are sized for a community that can no longer decide everything in a permanent assembly. For “Governance and institutions,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Governance and institutions” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For governance and institutions, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Governance and institutions,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Governance and institutions,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Governance and institutions,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Governance and institutions” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Governance and institutions,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Governance and institutions,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Governance and institutions” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “10 — Governance and institutions”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Governance and institutions,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Governance and institutions,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Governance and institutions” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “10 — Governance and institutions”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Governance and institutions,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Governance and institutions,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Governance and institutions” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “10 — Governance and institutions”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

11. Dependence on Earth

Autonomy is measured by function, not by slogan. The settlement can produce its water and remain dependent on an electronic component or a medicine. The dependency matrix distinguishes imported mass from imported criticality. For “Dependence on Earth,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Dependence on Earth” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For dependence on earth, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Dependence on Earth,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Dependence on Earth,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Dependence on Earth,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Dependence on Earth” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Dependence on Earth,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Dependence on Earth,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Dependence on Earth” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “11 — Dependence on Earth”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Dependence on Earth,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Dependence on Earth,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Dependence on Earth” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “11 — Dependence on Earth”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Dependence on Earth,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Dependence on Earth,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Dependence on Earth” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “11 — Dependence on Earth”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

12. Two growth trajectories

The cautious variant builds the margins before the arrivals; the accelerated variant accepts more capacity debt. The answer compares not only growth speed but also reversibility, stock, human workload and sensitivity to logistics delays. For “Two growth trajectories,” first map the interfaces: resources, commands, data and dependencies. The mapping in “Two growth trajectories” serves to reveal dependencies and failure propagation paths.

For two growth trajectories, the answer requires a table separating need, capacity, margin and unit. For “Two growth trajectories,” subtract unavailability, reserves and simultaneity constraints from the nominal capacity. In “Two growth trajectories,” a number without a unit or a time horizon is incomplete. For “Two growth trajectories,” a one-significant-figure estimate comes before the precise calculation.

The “Two growth trajectories” milestone requires stated evidence: measurement, test, inventory, inspection or demonstration. For “Two growth trajectories,” a single telemetry reading is not enough if a common bias is plausible. For “Two growth trajectories,” look for independent confirmation or physical consistency with another quantity. The “Two growth trajectories” answer states what would be observed if the assumed state were real. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “12 — Two growth trajectories”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Two growth trajectories,” remove a useful capacity and recalculate the decision horizon. In “Two growth trajectories,” preserve vital functions and reversible options rather than the initial plan at all costs. The degraded mode of “Two growth trajectories” quantifies shed loads, stocks, duration, repair and the threshold for changing strategy. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “12 — Two growth trajectories”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

For “Two growth trajectories,” reject a local optimization whose effects on the other functions have not been quantified. In “Two growth trajectories,” a mass saving must be weighed against its maintenance, emergency, energy and thermal costs. The “Two growth trajectories” answer therefore calls for an assessment of cross-effects before accepting an optimization. In module 58, this point must be reread from the section “12 — Two growth trajectories”: the evidence required must remain consistent with the goal “Capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people” and with the margins actually available in this scenario.

Master table of budgets and evidence

Timeline of six injected events

T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: characterize “logistics delay” with at least two clues that do not share the same source of error. T+2: redistribute loads or tasks to prevent the incident from spreading. T+3: update the module 58 resource table with the capacity actually remaining. T+4: compare this new state with the safety threshold and the time needed to reach a stable solution. T+5: the nominal configuration is restored only after the function has been demonstrated and the lessons learned have been recorded.

Event 2: partial loss of electricity production. T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: confirm “partial loss of electricity production” with independent data before changing the configuration. T+2: isolate the function affected by “partial loss of electricity production” and preserve vital functions as a priority. T+3: recalculate the autonomy available in the state created by “partial loss of electricity production.” T+4: compare this autonomy with the decision threshold defined in the capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people. T+5: return to nominal is authorized only after a test showing that the cause of “partial loss of electricity production” is under control.

Event 3: drift of a vital-function sensor. T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: for “drift of a vital-function sensor,” first look for a second measurement that does not depend on the same sensor or the same chain. T+2: switch to the backup resource or procedure relevant to module 58. T+3: draw up the new balance of time, stock and capacity after this switch. T+4: decide on the basis of the remaining margin, not of the wish to continue the initial plan. T+5: document the recovery test of “drift of a vital-function sensor” before re-arming the function.

Event 4: a mobility asset immobilized. T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: characterize “a mobility asset immobilized” by separating symptom, measurement and presumed cause. T+2: immediately reduce the activities that would worsen this anomaly in the capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people. T+3: check which redundancies really remain available after the incident. T+4: apply the abort-or-continue criterion associated with the resource that has become limiting. T+5: reinstate the function only when the cross-check no longer reproduces “a mobility asset immobilized.”

Event 5: temporary unavailability of a key skill. T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: open an anomaly report for “temporary unavailability of a key skill” and confirm the deviation with a separate observation. T+2: put the crew and equipment in the safe configuration planned for this type of deviation. T+3: quantify the consequence of the incident on the duration, power, consumables or mobility concerned. T+4: if the calculated margin crosses the module 58 threshold, trigger the degraded scenario without waiting. T+5: close the anomaly only after a test, a stable reading and cross-validation.

Event 6: loss of a communication or coordination capability. T0: the anomaly is detected and logged. T+1: faced with “loss of a communication or coordination capability,” stop the intuitive interpretation and look for evidence that could contradict it. T+2: secure the hardest-to-replace function in the capstone project: growing a Mars settlement from 30 to 100 people. T+3: project the degraded state up to the next point where a resource, a deadline or a capacity becomes critical. T+4: choose the action that preserves this critical margin, even if it sacrifices a secondary goal. T+5: before resuming, repeat the measurement that had revealed “loss of a communication or coordination capability” and compare it with a healthy reference.

Assessment grid for the file

• Assumptions: 15 points.
• Budgets and units: 20 points.
• Interfaces: 15 points.
• Degraded modes: 15 points.
• Evidence and verification: 10 points.
• Timeline and operations: 10 points.
• Sensitivity analysis: 10 points.
• Clarity and traceability: 5 points.

The settlement matures: from technical capability to a lasting organization

At one hundred residents, the difficulty is no longer only sizing machines. The settlement must be able to detect when a rule, a skill or a supply chain is becoming a bottleneck. The reference file therefore adds a maturity register for each function: dependence on a single person, dependence on an imported part, local measurement capability, ability to train a replacement and time needed to restore the function after an incident. Credible autonomy is not the absence of imports; it is precise knowledge of what is still imported, of how long one can hold out and of the options available if that import is delayed.

Growth must also preserve reversibility. A rapid extension can use up the whole electrical reserve, occupy the last refuge volume or saturate the workshop. The answer therefore requires a milestone before each wave of arrivals: check the reserve after the loss of the largest credible source, water/food autonomy, care capacity, human maintenance time and the ability to make a new quarter safe. If an indicator is red, the next arrival is postponed, even if the physical places exist. This principle turns demography into an engineering decision and prevents confusing desired population with sustainable population.

Finally, the hundred-person settlement must learn to correct itself. Each incident feeds a design review: which assumptions were wrong, which warning sign was not read, which barrier actually limited the spread, which stock was consumed and which change reduces the risk of recurrence? The result is built into the maintenance plan, the training and the next cargo budget. The success of the capstone is therefore not a perfect Martian city on paper; it is a system able to measure its deviations, keep margins, slow its growth when necessary and improve its own understanding after each campaign.